Do Voters Want Republicans Or Democrats In Congress? A Very Early Look At The 2022 Governor Races | FiveThirtyEight Do Americans Have A Favorable Opinion Of Donald Trump? In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot, Republicans currently lead Democrats by 0.6 percentage points (42.5 percent to 41.9 percent, respectively).2 A week ago, Democrats led Republicans by 1.3 percentage points (42.5 percent to 41.2 percent, respectively). Governors in Vermont and New Hampshire serve two-year terms. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Kamala Harris in the Oval Office. Mississippi also has a gubernatorial election this year, but Republican Gov. The partisan leans here were calculated before the 2018 elections; we havent calculated FiveThirtyEight partisan leans that incorporate the midterm results yet. An early May poll from the Texas Politics Project found Texans gloomier than usual: 43 percent said that their familys economic situation was worse compared with last year, the highest figure since 2009. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. All rights reserved. I dont know what to call what our leaders are doing now, but it isnt that certainly not for the millions of us in the state who are not hard-right Republicans or supporters of the governor. Live From New York: Will AI Replace This Podcast? The circumstances in Texas are indeed very different. A Quinnipiac University poll conducted from September 22 to 26 of 1,327 likely votersthe most recent public polling of the racefound Abbott with a 7 point lead against O'Rourke. Harris also faced another hurdle when she said in a TV interview that the border was secure, prompting Texas Governor Greg Abbott to start sending buses full of migrants to her residence in Washington. Nov. 19, 2021 Texas Voters Have Soured On Greg Abbott, But That Doesn't Mean They'll Vote For Beto O'Rourke By Geoffrey Skelley Filed under 2022 Governors Elections Jun. The poll doesn't bode particularly well for Democrat Beto O'Rourke or actor and Austin resident Matthew McConaughey either. At this time last month, voters preferred Democrats over Republicans by 2.8 points (44.3 percent to 41.5 percent). And even if President Biden isnt as unpopular in the fall of 2022 as former President Trump was in the fall of 2018, a midterm environment still tends to disadvantage the party thats in the White House. Eric Thayer and Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images, Texas Governor Race Slightly Narrows: Polls, Abbott in Tighter Race Than Past Elections, aggregate of recent polling from FiveThirtyEight, SCOTUS Now Just Another Congressional Committee, Secret Chinese Police Stations in Europe Are 'Tip of the Iceberg', Trump's Attorney Just Blew Carroll Rape Case, King Charles Says Royals Require 'Acting Ability', Ukraine Will Regain 'Significant Territory' From Russia, Florida GOP Paves the Way to Help Ron DeSantis Challenge Trump. It does so by measuring the distance between a governors net approval rating (approval rating minus disapproval rating) and her states partisan lean (how much more Republican- or Democratic-leaning the state is than the country as a whole).1. Opinion | Gov. Greg Abbott Is Leading Texas for Only a Sliver of Texans And these issues might be a pathway for ORourke to win over independent voters, who are especially displeased with Abbotts handling of these issues. Mr. Abbott, the performative governor, really likes a publicity stunt: busing migrants to Washington, D.C., in an ultimately pointless (though, for many migrants, unintentionally welcome) effort to take the border to President Biden, as the governor put it, or sending the Texas National Guard to the border as part of another pointless but very expensive action, ostensibly to secure the southern border but more likely to hold off challenges from Mr. Abbotts right. Its not a new idea: its as old as Benjamin Franklin, who joked that a vice president should be addressed as Your Superfluous Excellency.. Or, at least, governing in the conventional sense, which used to mean assenting to the will of the majority while looking out for the most vulnerable citizens. Live From New York: Will AI Replace This Podcast. Greg Abbott (R)* Bio | Campaign Site. 9, 2021 Most Candidates. The poll found that 38 percent of voters were most concerned about the U.S.-Mexico border, while 17 percent listed abortion as their top concern. If you choose an independent, the seat will not be added to the total of either party. In 2014, Abbott defeated Democrat Wendy Davis by more than 20 points. HOUSTON Greg Abbott probably thought he was doing the right thing when he skipped out on the N.R.A. The following races are rated as safe for the incumbent party. Jul. An April Pew Research Center survey found that 61 percent of Americans supported automatically registering all eligible citizens to vote, while 78 percent supported making early in-person voting available to voters for at least two weeks before Election Day. (Bexar Facts . Its also Harris alma mater. The poll found the Republican governor securing 53 percent of the vote, while just 46 percent of respondents said they planned to vote for O'Rouke. (Notably, stricter voter ID laws advocated primarily by Republicans are also quite popular.). Read more about the methodology. 20, 2023, at 9:38 AM How unpopular is Joe Biden? He's constantly dodging attacks from the right. Greg Abbott (6). 6:00 AM. . But in Bidens case, a second White House run was less certain given the concerns about his age: if he wins the 2024 election, he will be 82 when he is sworn in as president. The correlation between the two is -0.15. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own forecast for the 36 governor elections in 2022. Given what is at stake, wrote Thomas L. Friedman, a columnist for The New York Times, on Tuesday in reference to the risk of another Trump presidency, Biden needs to make the case to his party and, more important, to independents and moderate Republicans why Harris is the best choice to succeed him, should he not be able to complete his term.
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